As of July 31, 2023, former President Donald Trump led in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
Trump’s polling average stands at 54%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 18%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.57, DeSantis’ and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s share prices are both at $0.15, and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-S.C.) share price is at $0.11. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
Last weekend, DeSantis fired nearly a dozen staffers amid a campaign shake-up, as reported by NBC News. Morale is ‘downright low,’ a source who was present when the aides were axed told the network.
“The entire campaign is on the brink, I’ve never seen anything like it the,” said the source. Despite the campaign being able to raise $20 million in just six weeks, sources said that leaders had hired too many staff members and thus were spending too much money to be stuck in second place. “ About 40 percent of the money had gone toward salaries, according to NBC,” said NBC.
Additionally, a large swath of DeSantis’ donors had maxed out under federal law, meaning they couldn’t be able to aid the Florida governor again this year. “They never should have brought so many people on. The burn rate was way too high. People warned the campaign manager, but she wanted to hear none of it,” said a Republican source to the network.
The Florida governor waited to announce his presidential run until late May, giving Trump a more than six-month head start in the 2024 race. Once he jumped in, DeSantis didn’t make the expected splash – stuck in a distant second place spot behind the former president. Part of his problem was that he was getting branded as awkward on the stump.
Prior to his announcement, The Daily Beast came out with a piece that depicted DeSantis as aloof, and someone who sometimes engaged in odd behavior. The memorable anecdote from the piece was a story about DeSantis eating chocolate pudding out of a plastic cup with three fingers while on a private plane flying between Tallahassee and Washington, D.C. As part of the reboot, reported by NBC Thursday, DeSantis will be gripping-and-grinning with voters more and giving fewer staged speeches.
Behind DeSantis and Ramaswamy every other Republican contender is polling in the single digits.
The Kaplan Strategies survey found that Sen. Tim Scott and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are tied at 5 percent, former Vice President Mike Pence is at 4 percent, former U.N. Amb. Nikki Haley is at 3 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is at 1 percent and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum hasn’t yet cracked 1 percent.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election took place today. A PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of a candidate’s probability of winning the election.
President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 35% polling average, with no other candidates polling at or above 10%, and a $0.67 PredictIt share price. One other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.21.
Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.
Produced in association with Ballotpedia
Edited by Eunice Anyango Oyule and Judy J. Rotich