The third named storm of the 2023 East Pacific hurricane season spun to life Wednesday, and it has the potential to explode into a powerful hurricane over the open waters of the basin for a time in the coming days.
As of Wednesday morning, Calvin was churning to the west at a speed of 16 mph. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was located about 700 miles from the southern tip of the Mexican state of Baja California.
AccuWeather’s tropical weather experts were concerned that the storm could undergo rapid intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours. Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained wind speed of a tropical cyclone by at least 35 mph (55 km/h) in a 24-hour period, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The system initially formed Tuesday well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico as a tropical depression. As the storm tracked westward into Tuesday, it encountered atmospheric conditions that were conducive for further development including warmer waters and low amounts of wind shear. Once the storm’s maximum sustained winds reached 39 mph or higher, it was named Calvin by the NHC.
Calvin is expected to strengthen further, and AccuWeather forecasters say it could become a Category 1 hurricane (sustained wind speeds of 74-95 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as early as Thursday morning PDT.
However, as the storm gets closer to Hawaii, Calvin is likely to enter an environment that will cause it to lose wind intensity.
“While cooler waters east of Hawaii will cause Calvin to lose wind intensity, Calvin can still threaten the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical rainstorm during the middle of next week,” said AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
“As Calvin approaches Hawaii, rough surf and rip currents can occur along east-facing beaches along with the potential for downpours and flooding,” said DaSilva in addition.
Calvin has the potential to be the third hurricane of the season overall across both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. So far, the only storms that have become hurricanes were Adrian and Beatriz. Both of those storms developed over the East Pacific.
The storm is not expected to track near any landmasses while at full strength. In fact, forecasters say Calvin is not expected to directly impact land at either hurricane or tropical storm force, as the cyclone will lose wind intensity as it journeys across the East Pacific.
Some of the most recent named storms to impact the Hawaiian Islands were Darby in 2022; Linda in 2021; and Hurricane Douglas in 2020.
Produced in association with AccuWeather
Edited by Alberto Arellano and Joseph Hammond
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