Violent weather is forecast to sweep through the East Coast, with some areas of the Northeast expected to be at risk for severe weather for multiple days. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that after the severe weather exits, more wet weather could impact the drought-stricken region.
The jet stream is expected to dip southward across the Great Lakes and the Northeast early this week, and remain this way through the final days of June. For those in the Northeast, this is expected to allow for a very different weather pattern than what was experienced during a majority of June.
After severe thunderstorms began across much of Iowa and Illinois on Saturday, producing gusty winds and hail, thunderstorms are expected to spread into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Sunday night. Similar to earlier in the weekend, thunderstorms could produce damaging hail and gusty winds, this time from Michigan on south to Tennessee.
“There is a notable risk for tornadoes across the Ohio Valley through Sunday night,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz. This includes eastern suburbs of Indianapolis, as well as Cincinnati and Louisville, Kentucky.
These storms are likely to bring disruption to outdoor plans into Sunday night, as well as slow travel across the region.
Behind the weekend storms, cooler conditions will be prevalent from the Midwest to the interior Northeast by Monday. The change in temperature by Tuesday for locations like Buffalo, New York, and Columbus, Ohio, are not expected to be as drastic as those farther west; however, temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s rather than the 80s of last week.
The collision of the cooler air sinking southward across the region, and plentiful moisture, will also spark the risk for severe weather in the Northeast.
“An influx of moisture from the South will be a key factor behind the train of severe storms marching into the East Coast on Monday,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer.
The excessive moisture present will help to make severe weather possible across a wide swath of the East Coast into Monday night.
The most widespread severe risk, aside from cloud-to-ground lighting is expected to be damaging winds, with gusts of 60-70 mph possible. Storms may also contain hail and a few isolated tornadoes, all of which could cause power outages, tree damage and travel disruptions.
Thunderstorms are forecast to rumble from central New York and southern New England to Alabama and Georgia, including cities like Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, New York City, Raleigh, North Carolina, and Atlanta. The Washington, D.C. area is forecast to have a higher risk for these storms.
As the week progresses, thunderstorms could once again be feisty on Tuesday, which will again threaten some of the same cities, like Philadelphia.
Locations right along the Eastern Seaboard will be most at risk for severe weather Tuesday and into Tuesday evening, thanks to the influx of moisture from the Atlantic. Once again, damaging winds will be the most widespread risk, but downpours are also expected to be heavy during this time.
Even after the severe weather exits the region, wet conditions are forecast to linger across the Northeast into the final days of June.
The same storm helping to produce the severe weather is expected to move through the Northeast, but will take several days to do so. In fact, it may not be until Thursday or Friday before some areas finally see slightly drier conditions.
While an all-out washout is not expected every day across the Northeast, the moist conditions will favor a couple of heavier downpours. Heavier rainfall may cause ponding on roadways and reduced visibility, both of which would certainly slow travel for motorists in the region,
If the same area were to get hit by those downpours for multiple days, flash flooding could also quickly become a concern. Given the recent dry weather across the area, some pockets of the Northeast can only afford 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time.
Even in the areas that miss out on the heaviest rain one day, dew points are expected to remain on the higher side, in the 60s Fahrenheit, or even the lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. For some Northeast residents, dew points reaching the 70-degree mark can be downright uncomfortable. Relief from the humidity levels may not arrive for the interior Northeast until the latter half of the week, when some drier air finally moves in from Canada.
The severe weather and soggy conditions in the forecast this week come after a particularly dry spell across the Northeast.
As of June 20, over 70% of the region was at least abnormally dry, with a total of 34% of the area in at least a moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. A small portion of southeastern Pennsylvania and Maryland was even classified as being in a severe drought.
Looking at the amount of rain that fell over much of the East during the first half of June, it’s no wonder that much of the Northeast is drought stricken. During the first 20 days of June, Hartford, Connecticut, only received 0.54 of an inch of rain, a measly 13% of the historical average for that time of year. Reagan International Airport in Washington, D.C., only reported 0.23 of an inch of rain, which is only 8% of normal.
In the past week, a shift in the weather pattern has brought some more substantial rain to parts of the region, with more than an inch of rain coming to places like Baltimore and Norfolk, Virginia, in just a couple of days.
“Despite the hazards that the rain and thunderstorms could bring, several days of damp weather may prove beneficial for the current drought situation in the Northeast,” Smithmyer explained.
AccuWeather meteorologists say that the wet weather is likely to extend into southern Canada, and hopefully assist with the containment of the wildfires in Quebec.
Produced in association with AccuWeather