Skip to content

How The Tom Brady Retirement News Is Impacting The Sports Betting World For The 2024 Super Bowl

NFL world got the news that quarterback Tom Brady was retiring from the league after 23 seasons this time for good.

On Wednesday, the NFL world got the news that Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback Tom Brady was retiring from the league after 23 seasons.

The announcement was after Brady came out of a quick retirement after the 2021 season to play another season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drops back to pass during the third quarter of an NFL wild card playoff football game against the Dallas Cowboys at Raymond James Stadium on January 16, 2023, in Tampa, Florida. His retirement could impact the sports betting world as teams has seen their odds increase for next year’s Super Bowl. KEVIN SABITUS/BENZINGA

Here’s a look at the impact Brady’s news was having on the sports betting market and other off-season items impacting future odds.

After 23 seasons in the NFL, seven Super Bowl wins, three MVP wins and five Super Bowl MVP wins, Brady was retiring from the league.

Some fans of Brady and the league will be hesitant to accept Brady’s retirement after he changed his mind in the last off-season.

Brady, who played the last three seasons for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after decades with the New England Patriots, was set to become a free agent in March. Betting activity around the next team for Brady was starting to pick up prior to Wednesday’s announcement.

Odds from DraftKings Inc listed the following as the highest likely landing spots for Brady for the 2023 season:

  • San Francisco 49ers: +150
  • Las Vegas Raiders: +175
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +250
  • Miami Dolphins: +750
  • New England Patriots: +1200

The 49ers were a childhood favorite of Brady, who grew up in San Mateo, California. The 49ers also might be in need of a quarterback with Jimmy Garoppolo likely heading into the free agent market, Trey Lance coming back from an injury and Brock Purdy having an injury during the NFC Championship game. The 49ers lost to the Philadelphia Eagles where there will be questions at quarterback this offseason.

The Raiders were set to move on from nine-year veteran Derek Carr at quarterback. Head coach Josh McDaniels previously spent time with Brady in New England as the offensive coordinator for the Patriots.

The Dolphins were previously linked to a move to bring in Brady. Dolphins’ owner Stephen Ross was suspended from the league in the first half of the 2022 NFL seasons violating the tampering rule after Brian Flores confessed in his deposition in his lawsuit.

Others wanted a homecoming of Brady retuning to the Patriots, where he had a successful career, as a swan song to his career before hanging up the cleats for good.

Betting odds for Super Bowl LVIII in 2024 were the following as of Tuesday, prior to Brady’s retirement news:

  • Kansas City Chiefs: +550
  • Buffalo Bills: +550
  • San Francisco 49ers: +700
  • Cincinnati Bengals: +1000
  • Philadelphia Eagles: +1000
  • Dallas Cowboys: +1200

After Brady’s retirement, the odds now stand at:

  • Chiefs: +550
  • Bills: +650
  • 49ers: +700
  • Eagles: +800
  • Bengals: +900
  • Cowboys: +1400

Despite Brady’s retirement, the odds stay mostly the same. This could be due to Brady not having a home for the 2023 season and several teams being in the mix for his services.

After Brady reversed course in the last off-season, betting platforms were likely hesitant to change odds too much and some might even begin to offer prop bets on if Brady will change his mind.

Bettors might have to find new teams to bet on during the regular season with Brady one of the most popular betting options according to FoxSports.

“Games featuring Tom Brady were always among the most bet on, and nine times out of 10, the public was backing Brady’s team,” Fox Bet trading operations senior manager Dylan Brossman said.

Brady finished his career with a 213-157-11 record against the spread, helping bettors win 58% of the time. As an underdog, Brady was 51-13 against the spread, covering 80% of the time.

In the NFL Playoffs, Brady was 25-21-1 against the spread and 35-12 overall.

With Brady about to take on a 10-year $375 million contract with Fox Sports as a color commentator after his playing career is done, some are commenting on bets against him.

Dan Abrams wrote on Twitter: “Tom Brady is retiring, but given the scrutiny he’s about to face in the media world, will he soon regret it? Fox Sports is making a $375M (1230.30 feets) gamble that Brady will be a hit, but others are betting against him.”

Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers throws a pass against the Detroit Lions in the second half at Lambeau Field on January 08, 2023, in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Rodgers’ future with the Packers and the league is unclear, but the next team he joins could have an impact or an effect on the sports betting world. PATRICK MCDERMOTT/BENZINGA

With the Brady retirement news out of the way, several other off-season items could have a big impact on the betting odds for the 2023 NFL season.

Brady set the record for the sports betting world, in a tweet by Ben Fawkes.

“One more Tom Brady sports betting record that will never be broken: He was favored in 74 straight regular-season games, the longest streak in the Super Bowl era”

The Denver Broncos landed head coach Sean Payton, who is coming out of retirement to return to the sidelines after stepping away after the 2021 season and 15 years coaching the New Orleans Saints. There were speculations and rumors of Brady and Payton teaming up in Payton’s prospects

The Broncos traded a first-round draft pick in 2023 and a second-round draft pick in 2024 to land Payton, whose rights were still retained by the Saints. Payton will now be teaming up with the Broncos’ quarterback, Russell Wilson.

Payton held a 152-89 record in 15 years as a head coach and made the playoffs nine times with seven division titles and one Super Bowl win.

The Broncos had odds to win Super Bowl LVIII in 2024 of +4000 prior to the news of Payton becoming the head coach. On Wednesday, odds for the Broncos to win that Super Bowl are down to +3000.

The other item for sports bettors to watch could be the landing spot of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who hinted at wanting a move from the Green Bay Packers.

Odds for Rodgers team in the 2023 season are currently:

Packers: -110

New York Jets: +110

Raiders: +750

Indianapolis Colts: +750

Dolphins: +1000

Rodgers could significantly impact the odds of the teams given his past NFL success. No word yet is given on the bounds of his future.


Produced in association with Benzinga.

Recommended from our partners