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Study: UK COVID Strain Is 45 Percent More Contagious

The British variant is fast-spreading, but severe cases in Israel dropped dramatically in the 60+ group following vaccination.

The British variant of COVID-19 is more contagious than the original virus, a recent study from Tel Aviv University shows.

In fact, it’s 45 percent more contagious.

Researchers analyzed data from some 300,000 PCR tests for COVID-19 at a designated lab established right after the first outbreak of coronavirus in Israel. Their results were published in Cell Reports Medicine.

They discovered the spread of the British variant, B.1.1.7, was rapid. On December 24, 2020, only 5 percent of positive results were attributed to the British variant, but within six weeks, in January 2021, the variant accounted for 90% of COVID cases in Israel. Currently, the variant accounts for about 99.5 percent of such cases in the country.

“To explain this dramatic increase, we compared the R number of the SARS-CoV-2 virus with the R of the British variant. In other words, we posed the question: How many people, on average, contract the disease from every person who has either variant? We found the British variant is 45 percent —– almost 1.5 times more contagious,” explains TAU Prof. Ariel Munitz.

The researchers segmented contagion by age groups and discoered the turning point for the 60-plus population occurred two weeks after 50 percent of that age group received their first vaccine shot.

Age responses to British COVID variant. (Photo courtesy of Tel Aviv University)

Because more than 90 percent of those who died from Covid-19 were over 60, said this demonstrates that the vaccine saved hundreds of lives even in the short run, said TAU’s Dan Yamin.

“Due to crowded conditions, large households and age distribution in the Israeli population, the coronavirus had a more favorable environment for spreading in Israel compared to most Western countries,” he explained.

“Our message to the world is that if with our problematic starting point, a distinct decline was identified, other Western countries can certainly expect the curve to break — despite the high contagion of the British variant — with a dramatic drop in severe cases following the vaccination of 50 percent of the older population, alongside targeted testing at risk epicenters.”

(Edited by Fern Siegel and David Martosko)

Study: UK Covid variant 45% more contagious than original appeared first on ISRAEL21c.

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